What’s the least reliable train operator?
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Published
Here at Railsmartr, we’ve been taking a look at the statistics for trains running on time, late or being cancelled. We’ll show you what we found for April to June 2024, so we can tell you what the least reliable train operator and the most reliable train operators are. We’ll also explain what the stats mean, and why you can’t always trust them.
This page was originally written in March 2023 and was updated with new data in September 2024.
How do we work out how reliable trains are?
A great question! We’re using data from the Office of Rail and Road, here. So, they’re able to tell us which trains were on time (exactly to the minute) and how many were cancelled.
On this page, this is how we’ll compare the operators. We’ll look at how punctual they are and how many trains they’ve cancelled. We can then use these sets of data to measure the least reliable train operator (and most reliable train operator!)
So what’s the least reliable train operator?
From April to June 2024, the least-reliable train operator, by the percentage of trains arriving on time, goes to Avanti West Coast. Just 41.2% of their services reached their destination on time.
If we’re going off the rate of official cancellations, then they’re also the least reliable train operator with a cancellation rate of 7.8%. However, they’re not actually the operator that cancels the most trains. But why? Let’s look into this more.
Can we trust these statistics?
For some companies, you might be wondering how the statistics look quite reasonable, even though their trains seem to be so unreliable.
Put simply, if it’s cancelled before 10pm the previous day, it doesn’t count as a cancellation. This is known as ‘P-coding’ and means that it won’t be reflected in the performance statistics. Most frustratingly for passengers, the most common reason given is ‘a short notice change to the timetable’. This reason doesn’t tell you anything!
Often, if you try to find these trains online on a site such as Realtimetrains, they won’t appear at all. Rather than a cancellation, it’s more like a deletion. The operator will claim that these trains were simply never planned to run!
The latest report by the Office of Rail and Road shows just how this works. They’ve provided the ‘official’ score for cancellations and an ‘adjusted’ store once you take these P-coded cancellations into account.
The cancellation rate for Northern is actually 8%, versus the 4.9% claimed. Between April and June 2024, almost 1 in 12 Northern services did not run. So, by this measure, they were the least reliable train operator.
Who’s the most reliable train operator?
Now we’ve covered who the least reliable train operator is, it’s only right to cover who the most reliable one is.
If we focus purely on on-time trains, that’d be Greater Anglia. They managed to run 87.2% of their trains exactly on time. That’s just slightly down compared to the same period last year. The most improved operator is Transport for Wales. They ran 65.1% of trains on time, which is an improvement of 8.1% compared to the same period last year.
The ‘franchised’ operator with the lowest rate of cancellations was Chiltern Railways, with just 1.5% (public figure 1.4%). However, Lumo was the most reliable operator overall, with an official cancellation rate of 0.8% (public rate was 0.6%).
What do these operators all have in common? For one, a relatively common fleet of trains. Chiltern Railways has just three train types. Lumo has just one train type.
Chiltern Railways is also a fairly self-contained network. On their busiest sections (Aylesbury and Oxford/Banbury to London), they’re the sole operator. It’s unlikely that another company’s trains will cause them to be delayed.
What are the full statistics?
Want to know how your local operator did? Here are the full statistics for April to June 2024:
| Operator | On-time | Cancelled (official) | Cancelled (actual) |
| Greater Anglia | 87.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Elizabeth Line | 83.1% | 2.7% | 2.7% |
| Chiltern Railways | 82.0% | 1.4% | 1.5% |
| c2c | 81.4% | 1.7% | 1.9% |
| Caledonian Sleeper | 75.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| Heathrow Express | 75.9% | 3.1% | 3.1% |
| London Overground | 74.2% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| ScotRail | 72.3% | 1.8% | 2.2% |
| Merseyrail | 71.4% | 3.3% | 3.3% |
| Govia Thameslink Railway* | 70.5% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| South Western Railway | 70.6% | 3.1% | 3.1% |
| Southeastern | 71.5% | 1.6% | 1.6% |
| West Midlands Trains | 66.0% | 4.4% | 5.1% |
| Northern | 61.9% | 4.9% | 8.0% |
| Transport for Wales | 65.1% | 4.1% | 4.2% |
| LNER | 59.4% | 3.8% | 6.5% |
| Great Western Railway | 64.2% | 4.0% | 4.0% |
| Lumo | 59.2% | 0.6% | 0.8% |
| Hull Trains | 56.3% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
| East Midlands Railway | 56.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
| CrossCountry | 51.3% | 6.6% | 6.6% |
| TransPennine Express | 53.0% | 3.0% | 4.9% |
| Avanti West Coast | 41.2% | 7.8% | 7.8% |
| Grand Central | 48.4% | 3.0% | 3.5% |
*Includes Southern, Thameslink, Great Northern and Gatwick Express.
What can we take from this data? As you’d expect, companies that have smaller networks and don’t have to interact with too many operators tend to fare better. Those who travel over longer distances and interact with each other more are more vulnerable to delays.
We can also see which operators have been P-coding their trains to conceal the real statistics.
What can I do when there’s a delay?
When you book with Railsmartr, we’ll let you know if there are any planned changes to your train, if we’re given enough notice. If you choose to change your plans, we’ve got you covered, too.
You’re also entitled to claim compensation in the event of a delay. You can find out more with our guide on what to do when there’s disruption.
All punctuality data on this page is courtesy of the Office of Rail and Road. It was released on 12/09/2024. The next expected publication is December 2024.
The data is also issued without liability and is correct at the time of writing (18th September 2024).
